The World Bank has updated its economic growth forecast for the UAE, indicating a brighter outlook for 2024 and 2025 due to strong performance in both the non-oil sector and increased oil production. The UAE’s real GDP growth for 2024 has been revised up to 3.9% from the previously projected 3.7%, and for 2025, the growth expectation has been adjusted to 4.1%, up from 3.8%.
These adjustments are part of a broader economic report on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which shows varying growth patterns across different countries. The UAE’s anticipated current account surplus stands at 8.4% for 2024 and 8.3% for 2025, with the fiscal balance expected to achieve a surplus of 5.1% by the end of 2024 and 4.8% in the following year.
Regionally, the MENA area is forecast to see a growth rate of 2.7% this year, with a projected rebound to 4.2% in 2025. This reflects a return to the modest growth rates that characterized the decade prior to the pandemic. Specifically, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—are expected to experience a growth rate of 2.8% in 2024 and an improved rate of 4.7% in 2025.
This positive trend in the GCC, led by the UAE, is largely attributed to the phased removal of oil production cuts and the vigorous expansion of non-oil sectors, underpinned by ongoing diversification efforts and economic reforms. According to the World Bank, the GDP per capita across the MENA region is also set to rise, moving from a growth rate of 0.5% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024, driven primarily by the robust economies of the GCC.
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